Hurricane season is less than two months away, and we are examining how water temperatures could affect the upcoming hurricane season.
La Niña has officially ended, and we are now transitioning into a neutral phase characterized neither by El Niño nor La Niña, but rather by an intermediate state.
This phase is expected to continue throughout the summer. There is even over a 50% chance it will persist into early fall.
But there is some uncertainty about what all this means for the hurricane season.
During La Niña, hurricane activity increases. However, with El Niño, the Atlantic hurricane season sees reduced activity.
Some meteorologists, such as Colorado State University, have already forecasted an “above-normal” season.
Their forecast includes 17 named storms, nine of which are hurricanes, and four of those are expected to become major hurricanes, which is above average.
Sea surface temperatures are a major factor in hurricane formation. Water temperatures have not yet consistently reached 80°F (27°C) in the Atlantic, the threshold for storm strengthening.
As we approach June 1, waters are expected to exceed 80 degrees, and we will have a better idea of what the upcoming season may look like.
Image: Wflx
