The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season this Thursday, August 7, still projecting a scenario of above-average activity, though with slightly reduced confidence compared to the initial May report.
According to the agency, there is now a 50% probability that the season will be more active than normal, a 35% chance it will remain near average, and a 15% likelihood that activity will be below normal.
The forecast reflects a 10-percentage-point reduction from the previous assessment, which estimated a 60% probability of an active season. Despite this adjustment, NOAA maintains its warning about the need for preparedness and urges special alerts for coastal and inland communities.
Number of Storms and Hurricanes Expected
According to the report, the 2025 hurricane season is expected to produce between 13 and 18 named storms with sustained winds of at least 39 miles per hour. Of these, five to nine are forecast to become hurricanes, with winds of 74 miles per hour or higher.
Additionally, two to five of these storms could intensify into major hurricanes (Categories 3 to 5), with winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
So far, the season has recorded four tropical storms: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter. The next name on the official list will be Erin, though the first hurricane of the season has yet to form—a situation that, on average, occurs by August 11 each year.
Climate Factors Behind the Forecast
The forecast is based on observations of above-average ocean temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic, along with a neutral and cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). According to NOAA, these two variables “favor the formation and potential intensification of hurricanes during the most critical months of the season.”
Matt Rosencrans, lead meteorologist at NOAA’s National Environmental Prediction Center, stated that “many of the factors identified before the start of the season remain present” and that “conditions, in general, are aligning with the projections made in May.”
Ken Graham, director of the U.S. National Weather Service, urged the public to take precautions against the risks posed by these weather events. “No two storms are the same,” he warned.
“Each storm presents unique and potentially deadly risks that can affect both coastal and inland communities. It is crucial to have an emergency plan and know what actions to take before, during, and after any of the multiple hazards associated with the hurricane season.”
Agreements and Differences with Other Forecasts
This update aligns broadly with the assessment released by Colorado State University (CSU), which revised its own Atlantic forecasts on Wednesday.
The CSU team maintains its projection of a slightly above-average season but acknowledges less confidence than in previous years due to notable differences in wind speed and direction in the atmosphere over the Caribbean during June and July.
According to CSU, there is a 55% chance of more intense activity than normal over the next two weeks, a 35% probability of average activity, and only a 10% chance that activity will decrease.
The team forecasts the formation of 16 named storms, of which eight could reach hurricane status and three could become major hurricanes. CSU will continue issuing biweekly forecasts as the peak of the season progresses.
The trajectory of the season will depend on the evolution of these climate patterns. Both NOAA and CSU emphasize the variability and the impossibility of predicting the specific behavior of each cyclone.
In light of this scenario, authorities reiterate the importance of following official recommendations, monitoring weather bulletins, and ensuring action plans for both coastal and inland residents.
Image: Infobae
