The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasted an Atlantic hurricane season more active than average for 2025, estimating between 13 and 19 named storms. Of these, between 6 and 10 could become hurricanes, and between 3 and 5 could reach major hurricane status, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph (178 km/h), as announced on May 22 during a press conference in Washington.
During an average year, the Atlantic basin records 14 named storms and 10 hurricanes, of which 3 will be major, according to historical records from NOAA. The agency assigns a 60% probability of an above-average season and a 30% chance of a near-normal season. These projections reflect an oceanic environment characterized by above-average sea temperatures and a neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), complicating long-term forecasts.
Unlike other institutions, such as Colorado State University (CSU), which provides fixed numbers, NOAA publishes ranges to reflect the inherent uncertainty in seasonal forecasts. The combination of warm waters in the Atlantic and a neutral ENSO can result in seasons with highly variable activity levels, depending on factors like wind shear, atmospheric moisture, and surface pressure.
What Do Forecasts from Other Institutions Say?
Colorado State University released its independent projection for the 2025 season in April, estimating 17 named storms and 13 hurricanes, of which 4 will be major. These figures also exceed historical averages and are primarily based on positive temperature anomalies in the eastern subtropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea, which favor the formation of intense tropical systems.
The CSU forecast aligns with the one issued by AccuWeather, which predicts between 13 and 18 named storms, between 7 and 10 hurricanes, and at least 3 major hurricanes. Additionally, this firm projects between 3 and 6 direct impacts on the continental United States, a figure comparable to the 2024 season.
AccuWeather noted there is a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the second half of the year, which could increase cyclonic activity in the Atlantic. In its analysis, the firm identified analog years such as 2017 and 2023, characterized by high-impact events like Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. According to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s chief hurricane forecaster, current ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean remain above average. This thermal pattern, combined with a deep ocean heat reservoir, could create favorable conditions for the rapid intensification of storms, a phenomenon that has been frequent in recent years.
When Does the Hurricane Season Start, and What Names Will Be Used?
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, with the peak activity expected around September 10, according to NOAA. The agency clarified that seasonal forecasts do not predict the specific path or timing of storm formation but provide an estimate of the total expected activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.
Among the additional factors highlighted by NOAA is the possibility of an intensified West African Monsoon, which could generate a higher number of tropical waves that serve as seeds for cyclone formation. This condition, combined with excess thermal energy in the ocean, could contribute to the development of more numerous and stronger storms.
The official list of names for tropical storms and hurricanes in 2025, designated by the World Meteorological Organization, includes: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, and Wendy. In the 2024 season, three names—Beryl, Helene, and Milton—were retired due to the human impact and material damage they caused.
What Risks Exist for the U.S., the Caribbean, and Other Regions?
Experts warned that, as in 2024, there is an elevated risk of direct impacts in areas such as the northern and eastern Gulf Coast, the Carolinas, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the northeastern Caribbean. According to Alex DaSilva, these areas should remain alert to weather bulletins and have reviewed emergency plans in place.
A potentially active start in June is expected, followed by a possible mid-season pause, before a resurgence of activity in the fall, especially if La Niña conditions return.
The previous season, in 2024, ended with 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes, several of which caused significant damage. These precedents underscore the need for vigilance throughout the official season, regardless of geographic region.
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