The cost of filling a grocery cart in the United States could rise noticeably in the coming months following the announcement of a new round of import tariffs by President Donald Trump. The new measures, targeting an expanded list of products and countries, affect common consumer goods such as seafood, coffee, fruit, wine, cheese, chocolate, and nuts.
Tariffs, which are taxes paid by importing companies on foreign goods, add to a previous round focused on Canada, Mexico, and China. While it is not yet possible to precisely estimate how these tariffs will translate into consumer prices, experts agree that the impact will be significant on many staple items.
Food industry analyst Phil Lempert, also editor of supermarketguru.com, stated that “likely nearly half of the products in a supermarket—around 40,000 items—will be affected by these tariffs, either in whole or in some of their ingredients.”
Seafood, Fruit, and Coffee: The First to Show Tariff Impact
One of the most vulnerable sectors to these new measures is seafood, a product that the United States imports heavily. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), up to 85% of the seafood consumed in the country comes from abroad. Among the main suppliers are Chile (10% tariff), India (26%), Indonesia (32%), and Vietnam (46%). These rates, combined with the high level of U.S. market dependence on these countries, foreshadow a direct rise in the prices of fish and seafood.
Coffee, another daily consumer product, will also be affected. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), about 80% of imported roasted coffee comes from Latin America, especially Brazil and Colombia, both with a 10% tariff. This includes both green beans and processed coffee, which will impact the final prices of one of the country’s most consumed beverages.
The group of tropical fruits is also not exempt from the new tariffs. Products such as bananas, melons, papayas, pineapples, and mangoes, imported mainly from Guatemala, Costa Rica, and Peru, will now have a 10% tax. Lempert warned that the short shelf life of these foods exacerbates the problem: “We are going to face significant issues with price and availability,” he noted.
Wine, Beer, and Spirits Get Pricier with Double Impact: Tariffs and Raw Materials
Imported alcoholic beverages are also among the hardest hit by the new tariff policy. Wines from the European Union, specifically from France, Italy, and Spain, will face a 20% tax. Products from New Zealand and Australia are also affected, with 10% tariffs. As for beer, imported brands from Mexico—such as Modelo and Corona—face a 25% tariff, the same applied to beers from Canada. Beers from the Netherlands and Ireland, like Heineken and Guinness, will also see increases due to the 20% tariff on EU products.
Canned beers will be affected in a second way: tariffs on aluminum imports from countries like China. This will increase production and packaging costs, leading to higher prices for consumers.
Dairy, Rice, and Meat: Gradual Increases That Could Be Long-Lasting
While 90% of the beef consumed in the United States is domestically produced, imports from Australia and New Zealand (both with a 10% tariff) could add pressure to an already strained market. The U.S. cattle herd is currently the smallest since 1951, which has contributed to the rising price of ground beef.
In the case of rice, although most is produced domestically, nearly a third is imported, mostly varieties like jasmine from Thailand (36%) and basmati from India (26%). The price increase in these specific varieties, popular in Asian and Middle Eastern cuisine, could shift purchasing decisions for broad segments of consumers.
The dairy sector, particularly European cheeses like Parmigiano-Reggiano, brie, and Gouda, will also face a 20% tariff. These products, from Italy, France, Spain, and the Netherlands, are an important part of gourmet and specialty consumption in the U.S.
Cocoa, Nuts, and Olive Oil: Three Categories with Cumulative Increases
The impact of tariffs will also be felt in the price of chocolate, due to the rising cost of imported cocoa. The main cocoa suppliers include Ivory Coast (21%) and Ecuador (10%). The Hershey Company, which manufactures products like Reese’s and Kit Kat, could not comment on potential price increases due to its financial results publication schedule. However, Lempert emphasized that these tariffs add to a context of high cocoa prices caused by climate and political issues in African countries.
Nuts will also be among the products with the largest short-term increases. Data from the World Bank indicates that Vietnam (46%), Ivory Coast (21%), Brazil (10%), and Thailand (36%) are key sources of cashews, pecans, and macadamia nuts.
Finally, olive oil, imported mainly from the European Union, particularly Spain, Italy, and Greece, faces a 20% tariff. Prices for this product “have already soared” and “will rise even further” as a result of the new measures.
Agricultural economics professor at Purdue University, Joseph Balagtas, warned that the effects of these tariffs are not limited to directly affected goods. “This is such a major shift in policy that there will be broader implications,” he noted, pointing out that factors like the rising price of imported fertilizers and the weakening U.S. dollar will also contribute to the overall increase in food prices.
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