Private U.S. weather service AccuWeather is forecasting an above-average 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with nearly record-breaking numbers of storms and a higher-than-usual risk of direct impacts on parts of Florida, Texas, and the Carolinas, it said Wednesday in a report.
This year’s hurricane season, potentially one of the most active in history, begins June 1, but signs suggest the first named system could appear even before the typical start dates, AccuWeather noted.
The service expects between 20 and 25 named storms across the Atlantic basin this year, including 8 to 12 hurricanes, of which 4 to 7 are forecast to be major, and 4 to 6 are expected to make direct landfall in the United States—all figures above the 30-year historical average.
The Texas coast, Florida’s Mango region, southern Florida, and the Carolinas face a higher-than-average risk of direct storm impacts this season, according to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster.
“All residents and interests along the U.S. coast, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, should have a hurricane plan and always be fully prepared for a direct impact,” he said.
The 2023 hurricane season produced 19 named tropical storms, but only four made direct landfall in the United States.
Hurricane Idalia, a Category 3 storm, struck Florida with powerful winds, torrential rains, and severe storm surge in late August.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), in a monthly forecast issued in early March, said there is a 62% chance La Niña will develop during June-August, up from the 55% estimate last month.
El Niño, characterized by unusually warm surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, remains present but has an 83% chance of dissipating between April and June.
The faster the transition to La Niña—a sister phenomenon that cools the Pacific Ocean—the more active the hurricane season will be, AccuWeather said.
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