An atmospheric river will form in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend before striking Florida, the Southeast, and the southern Appalachians. Severe storms are expected in the region, and with the storm potentially bringing over 6 inches of rain through early next week, there is also a risk of dangerous flooding.
Atmospheric rivers, similar to rivers in the sky, are common along the West Coast during winter. However, this one will take a less typical path from the western Caribbean toward the Southern states. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected, with 6 to 10 inches possible in the most persistently rainy areas, and localized downpours exceeding 10 inches cannot be ruled out. The worst of the storm will likely occur Monday and Tuesday.
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina will likely be the hardest hit by dangerous downpours, including some of the same areas struck by deadly Hurricane Helene last year.
While rainfall is generally needed in these areas because it will help drought conditions and reduce the wildfire risk, this storm will bring heavy, fast rainfall, creating a flood risk.
The disturbance causing the downpours was part of an unusual weather phenomenon called an omega block, which soaked the Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and Northeast earlier in the week.
Where and When Rainfall Will Be Most Intense
The rain and storms will become widespread along the Gulf Coast this weekend before strengthening into an atmospheric river and spreading across the Southeast, Florida, and the southern Appalachians through early next week.
Here’s a breakdown of where the most dangerous downpours are expected each day.
Saturday
Heavy rain and slow-moving storms are forecast for northern Florida and especially the Panhandle area, as well as Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Cities where rainfall may be heaviest include Tallahassee and Jacksonville in Florida; Valdosta, Savannah, Macon, and Atlanta in Georgia; and Birmingham in Alabama.
Sunday
Heavy rain and storms will continue affecting many of the same states and cities mentioned above but will also impact more parts of South Carolina, southern North Carolina, and central Florida.
Additional cities that may be affected include Charleston and Myrtle Beach in South Carolina, Wilmington in North Carolina, and Gainesville, Orlando, and Tampa in Florida.
Monday
The atmospheric river is likely to reach peak intensity, bringing a volatile day of downpours, including possible flash flooding from Florida to western North Carolina, along with storms capable of producing waterspouts, tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts.
Cities currently in the highest-risk zone include Tampa, Sarasota, Fort Myers, Orlando, Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Daytona Beach, and Melbourne in Florida; Savannah, Augusta, and Atlanta in Georgia; Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Columbia, and Greenville in South Carolina; and Charlotte and Asheville in North Carolina.
Tuesday
Heavy rain and storms may affect southern Florida before gradually clearing, but they will continue across the Carolinas and move toward the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley.
Early Signs of Hurricane Season
Fueling the atmospheric river is a pulse of rain and clouds moving eastward, called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which is heading toward the Caribbean Sea.
When these pulses reach a region, they create conditions favorable for storm formation by increasing atmospheric spin and moisture availability.
Marine heatwave conditions, such as those in the Caribbean Sea, can cause these storm-generating features to concentrate over a particular area and provide extra fuel for the upcoming atmospheric river.
While this early pulse is unlikely to trigger a hurricane, it may be an early sign that waters south of the United States could be more unstable this year and that coastal residents should prepare for hurricane season, which begins June 1.
Image: Infobae
