The first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season could form between June 6 and 13, according to a new report from AccuWeather. Its potential impacts may reach the Florida Keys between June 10 and 13, though the current risk in that region has been rated as low.
The report comes as the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season begins, running from June 1 to November 30.
This month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its forecast for the 2025 season.
According to NOAA, between 13 and 19 named storms are expected to form, of which six to ten could become hurricanes, and three to five could reach major hurricane status. The agency’s meteorologists gave these projections a 70% confidence level.
Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, the early formation of Tropical Storm Alvin was recorded. This storm developed from a tropical depression on Thursday, ahead of the average formation timeline for that region, where the official season begins on May 15. Unlike the Atlantic, no storms have formed yet in that basin this year, but AccuWeather notes that the period between June 6 and 13 could mark the start of tropical activity.
According to the forecast, several meteorological factors may contribute to the potential development of tropical storms in the Atlantic.
These include increased moisture that could bring rain and thunderstorms to southern Florida and as far as Jamaica over the weekend, as well as the presence of a “low-pressure pulse.”
According to AccuWeather tropical meteorologist Alex Duffus, “this pulse will move slowly across the western Caribbean and southern Gulf during the same period when moisture levels could increase. For these reasons, and due to a decrease in disruptive winds in the region, we are highlighting a possibility of tropical development.”
However, despite these projections for development between June 6 and 13, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicated it does not expect tropical activity in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Currently, the risk of the U.S. coast experiencing tropical rains or winds remains nearly zero until June 13, except in the Florida Keys, where the risk is classified as “low.”
Once it forms, the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be named Andrea, according to the official list of names for this year. As NOAA emphasized in a press release, this season could bring consequences beyond coastal regions.
Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm noted: “As we saw last year with significant inland flooding caused by hurricanes Helene and Debby, hurricane impacts can extend far beyond coastal communities.”
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