A month is a long time in global politics. Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, is in China again. But this time, it’s different.
- In other words, China’s main rival.
- But that’s just the beginning.
- More United
- But at that time, relations between Beijing and Moscow were tense. Now, things are different.
- But what stands out is that the invasion of Ukraine has also strengthened ties between Russia and China.
- But this time is special.
- Modi Joins the Alliance
- What Does This Mean for the Future of Alliances?
For the first time since the invasion of Ukraine, Putin is visiting his key ally not as a subordinate to Chinese President Xi Jinping, cornered by Western economic sanctions, but as a world leader who speaks as an equal with U.S. President Donald Trump, who leads the wealthiest country with the largest military on the planet.
In other words, China’s main rival.
This visit to China is a victory for Putin following his summit in Alaska on August 15, where Trump received him ceremoniously and welcomed him on U.S. soil.
Putin persuaded him not to demand an end to the bombing of Ukraine and to abandon threats of new sanctions against Russia.
And in China, Putin is receiving a grand welcome: over a dozen regional leaders are gathering in the city of Tianjin for the two-day summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Among the group are North Korean leader Kim Jong-un—no stranger to anti-Western rhetoric—and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose relationship with Washington and Beijing is far more complex.
But that’s just the beginning.
On Wednesday, in Beijing, they will attend a military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II and celebrate the “Chinese people’s victory in resisting Japanese aggression and triumph in the war against fascism.”
So, are these two events a sign of strength for a global alliance against the U.S.?
And is this Russia-India-China (RIC) bloc—a powerful group aimed at counterbalancing Western dominance in international affairs but inactive for the past five years—reemerging just as Trump’s trade war heats up?
More United
According to several experts, this unusually long visit by Putin to China aims to show the West that the “great friendship” between Moscow and Beijing grows stronger every day.
And that the U.S. intention to pit both governments against each other will not succeed.
Even, analysts note, if Trump hands Ukraine to Russia and lifts sanctions, Moscow will not distance itself from China.
These analysts point out that former U.S. Secretary of State under Richard Nixon, Henry Kissinger, managed to pull China out of the Soviet Union’s sphere of influence in the 1970s.
But at that time, relations between Beijing and Moscow were tense. Now, things are different.
“By increasing commercial pressure on Beijing, the Trump administration is only strengthening the China-Russia axis. And attempts to weaken the bond between these two countries, as Kissinger did years ago, have not produced tangible results,” Pierre Andrieu, a former diplomat and expert on China-Russia relations at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told the BBC.
“If the U.S. strategy to achieve that distancing is lifting sanctions against Moscow or ending the war in Ukraine, then Washington underestimates the complexity of this partnership,” an anonymous expert on China-Russia relations wrote in an article published on the European Policy Analysis Center’s website.
China has become Russia’s top buyer of energy resources and the main supplier of cars and other goods to Russia after Western companies exited the country.
But what stands out is that the invasion of Ukraine has also strengthened ties between Russia and China.
“Both countries oppose Western liberalism and challenge U.S. hegemony. Both are nuclear powers and permanent members of the UN Security Council. Their strategic interests align,” Andrieu explained.
“Economically, they complement each other: Russia has natural resource power, and China is an industrial and technological powerhouse,” the expert noted.
Andrieu also believes the personal relationship between the two leaders is key.
Putin and Xi have much in common. They are the same age, grew up under Soviet communism, and have been in power for a long time.
Both have built authoritarian regimes and appear intolerant of dissent.
Shortly before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Putin and Xi signed a document declaring “limitless friendship and cooperation with no forbidden zones” between their countries.
Xi calls Putin his “very dear friend.” In fact, he is the leader Xi has met with most during his tenure—over 40 times.
But this time is special.
China also benefits from keeping Putin in check and preventing him from improving relations with the West.
Moreover, it is not in Beijing’s interest for Russia to grow too strong, explains Patricia Kim, an international policy expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
“The best scenario for Beijing is a strong Russia to counter the West, but not so strong that it leaves China’s orbit,” Kim noted.
“Russia is a useful partner for China. It helps Xi maintain stability both domestically and abroad, especially in Central Asia,” Andrieu explained.
“It also helps Beijing mobilize support from the Global South and promote an alternative model to what the West offers,” the expert added.
Modi Joins the Alliance
The third member of this triumvirate—India—has had a stormy relationship with both Beijing and Washington, which could derail any effort to revive the bloc.
Xi and Modi’s meeting at the Tianjin summit—the Indian leader’s first visit to China in seven years—is highly significant.
The two countries have barely spoken since the 2020 border tensions in the Galwan Valley.
But India’s uncertain economic outlook has shifted realities.
Trump has imposed high tariffs on Indian products as punishment for buying Russian oil, bringing together two countries that once seemed like enemies.
Xi told Modi that China and India should be partners, not rivals, while Modi noted there is now an atmosphere of “peace and stability” between them.
Both countries are not only the most populous in the world but also two of the largest economies.
Modi announced that flights between India and China—suspended since the border incidents—will resume, though no date was specified.
Xi stated that “both nations need to come closer and manage their relationship from a strategic standpoint and with a long-term perspective,” adding that “being friends is the right choice for both sides.”
What Does This Mean for the Future of Alliances?
Analysts say that if the union between the three countries is effectively revived—something both Russia and China have expressed interest in—it could counterbalance Washington’s influence, along with other alliances like the BRICS group (founded in 2006 by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa).
However, at least India is forced to strike a balance, especially due to economic realities stemming from Trump’s tariffs. Additionally, it must address deep-seated trust issues with China.
Experts say India wants to maintain an independent foreign policy.
The memory of fierce border clashes with China remains fresh.
And India is concerned about Beijing’s close relationship with its longtime enemy, Pakistan.
Moreover, decades of intense diplomacy that have brought India and the U.S. closer would have to be dismantled and possibly abandoned.
That could be too high a price for India to fully join an anti-Washington alliance.
Yet, the images from this week are hard to ignore. Putin and Kim will be among the heads of state expected to attend the military parade in Beijing, alongside Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
The carefully choreographed event will feature thousands of troops marching in formation across Beijing’s historic Tiananmen Square.
For the first time in history, on Wednesday, September 3, the leaders of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea will be in the same place.
“Could this meeting be the first summit of the ‘axis of autocracies’?” wonders Neil Thomas, a China expert at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
Such a union is unlikely to last long, he says, because its participants have different goals and do not trust one another.
“But the presence of Putin, Pezeshkian, and Kim highlights China’s role as the world’s leading authoritarian power,” he concludes.
Thus, this week’s events in China may be a powerful display not necessarily of alliances like the SCO, RIC, or BRICS countering Washington, but rather of China’s consolidation at the center of any such alliance in the foreseeable future.
Image: DiarioNY
