2026 will be the first year of President Donald Trump’s administration in which he will have absolute control over the federal budget and immigration funding, allowing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to advance its mass deportation plan.
- In 2026, ICE could have more than the 10,000 federal agents it is currently hiring to increase operations in cities with the highest numbers of undocumented immigrants.
- More complicated immigration processes
- TPS and other protections come to an end
- For Gelatt, some immigration changes may be more subtle but aim to toughen protections for foreigners, whether temporary or permanent.
- The executive order banning 32 countries has even led to the suspension of naturalization processes, as warned by the American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA).
- A key decision: birthright citizenship
However, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is preparing to implement new policies, including a change to the public charge rule to condition Legal Permanent Residency.
“While immigrants face a wide variety of circumstances, I believe 2026 will be a more difficult year for many,” said Julia Gelatt, associate director of the Migration Policy Institute’s (MPI) Immigration Policy Program. “For those without secure legal status, immigration enforcement measures are likely to intensify as ICE hires more personnel and secures space to detain more people.”
In 2026, ICE could have more than the 10,000 federal agents it is currently hiring to increase operations in cities with the highest numbers of undocumented immigrants.
The Trump Administration will also have greater freedom to use funds authorized by Republicans under the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” (BBB), which allocates over $170 billion for immigration enforcement, adding 80,000 beds in detention centers, in addition to hiring more agents.
“People who are in the country without authorization will likely face a higher risk of arrest and possible deportation,” Gelatt acknowledged.
More complicated immigration processes
USCIS is preparing a new public charge rule that, since late November, has been open for public comment in the Federal Register, in a plan that seeks to penalize immigrants for using social assistance programs, such as food stamps.
“The Trump administration and Congress are also making daily life more difficult for immigrants without a permanent resident card (Green Card) by restricting their access to government-funded programs and support that families rely on in times of economic need,” Gelatt acknowledged.
Additionally, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) confirmed new rules for assigning H-1B work visas, moving away from the application lottery and focusing on applicants’ profiles. Changes to immigration processes could continue.
“We are likely to see other attempts to push the boundaries of executive authority, such as the new $100,000 fee for H-1B visas obtained abroad, or the revocations of student visas we saw earlier this year, both of which are being challenged in court,” Gelatt explained. “However, since Congress maintains control over the U.S. visa system, much of the legal immigration system could continue to function with relative normality.”
TPS and other protections come to an end
In early October, the Supreme Court authorized the Trump Administration to proceed with ending the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program for Venezuelan nationals, as part of efforts to reduce the use of so-called ‘parole’ or temporary deportation relief.
“Some people who currently have temporary protections, known as Temporary Protected Status (TPS), will lose those protections in early 2026,” Gelatt noted. “And the Trump administration continues to make it harder for those seeking humanitarian protection in the United States to obtain such protections.”
The New York City Bar Association (NYCBAR), which has compiled all of the Trump Administration’s immigration changes, identifies a trend toward dismantling the immigration system.
“The president’s executive orders and changes to regulations expose virtually all U.S. residents who are not citizens to possible harassment, detention, or deportation,” states the NYCBAR report. “In many cases, the administration’s actions will prevent people from filing legitimate applications to enter or remain in the United States.”
For Gelatt, some immigration changes may be more subtle but aim to toughen protections for foreigners, whether temporary or permanent.
“I foresee more significant changes in immigration enforcement than in legal immigration processes. For legal immigrants, the changes could be more subtle. We are seeing the Trump administration applying more rigorous scrutiny to potential immigrants for work and family reasons, which is slowing processing and could result in more denials,” warned the expert. “Additionally, we are seeing the Trump administration expanding the travel ban imposed during the summer to further restrict the ability of people from banned countries to obtain visas, green cards, or citizenship.”
The executive order banning 32 countries has even led to the suspension of naturalization processes, as warned by the American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA).
“The ripple effect of these policies will be felt in every corner of our economy and in communities across the country,” warned Ben Johnson, AILA’s executive director, in a virtual press conference. “We are talking about canceled naturalization ceremonies, thousands of USCIS and State Department appointments that could delay asylum cases and status adjustments, arbitrarily shortened work authorizations, and entire categories of people suddenly finding themselves in unstable situations.”
A key decision: birthright citizenship
By June at the latest, the Supreme Court will decide on President Trump’s executive order to block birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants and other foreigners.
The Supreme Court justices will rule on the case Barbara v. Trump, filed in the New Hampshire District Court, though other cases could eventually be added, as there are at least seven lawsuits pending against the Trump Administration.
The “Barbara” case is similar to that of millions of mixed-status families in the United States: she is a citizen of Honduras, resides in New Hampshire with her husband and their three minor children.
“Barbara has a pending asylum application with USCIS and has resided in the United States since 2024. Her husband, the father of her child, is neither a U.S. citizen nor a legal permanent resident. She and her husband are expecting their fourth child,” the court document states.
If the decision favors the Trump Administration’s arguments, approximately 255,000 children annually would not acquire U.S. citizenship, according to estimates from MPI and Penn State’s Population Research Institute.
Image: Opinion
