The mid-November discount season may not compare to previous years due to various factors influencing the price increases of popular products…
Experts warn that fewer discounts are expected this year.
Black Friday and Cyber Monday have evolved from being single days of major discounts into a true shopping marathon that extends over several weeks in November, a phenomenon experts call “Black November.”
This extended period of deals allows consumers to better plan their purchases, compare prices, and get ahead of shortages of popular products, though it also requires a more careful shopping strategy to avoid unnecessary spending and impulse buys.
According to an analysis by NBC Select, the current season shows notable differences compared to previous years.
Discounts, while still present, are less steep due to the impact of tariffs on imported products. Erik Guzik, assistant professor of management and entrepreneurship at the University of Montana, warns that retailers will continue offering Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions, but they will be fewer, and the discounts will not reach the levels of prior years.
Why are fewer discounts expected for Black Friday 2025?
Guzik explains that while discounts of 40% to 50% were once common, this year consumers should consider discounts of 20% to 30% attractive, especially in categories affected by tariffs such as clothing, footwear, toys, and electronics. This situation arises because many retailers have chosen to partially absorb the cost of tariffs to avoid passing drastic price increases on to customers, which limits their ability to offer significant discounts.
Additionally, the overaccumulation of inventory prior to the implementation of new tariff policies has helped maintain competitive prices, but once those stocks are depleted, prices are expected to rise. Ronald Goodstein, associate professor of marketing at Georgetown University, notes that reduced profit margins will lead retailers to limit the number of products on sale, which could cause the most in-demand items to sell out quickly.
“Once you see that discount, it will probably be the best you’ll get this season,” Guzik emphasizes. Delaying a purchase in hopes of finding better deals carries a greater risk than in previous years, as inventory restocking is not guaranteed. To make the most of Black Friday and Cyber Monday opportunities, experts recommend adopting practices that favor smart and responsible shopping.
Creating a detailed shopping list, prioritizing real needs, and setting a clear budget are fundamental steps to avoid overspending and impulse purchases. Henry Jin, professor of supply chain management at the University of Miami, advises ranking wish-list items by urgency, which helps distinguish between necessary purchases and those that can be postponed.
Comparing prices across different retailers is essential, as during these events most stores offer similar products at nearly identical prices. Goodstein recommends analyzing not only the price but also shipping conditions, return policies, the ability to apply additional coupons, and rewards programs. Digital tools like price trackers can be useful for verifying whether a deal is truly advantageous or if the price has been inflated beforehand.
Another recommendation highlighted by NBC Select is to take advantage of additional promotions, such as using credit cards that offer points, cash-back extensions, and stackable coupons. It is also important to pay attention to shipping costs and the origin of products, as international shipments may incur additional tariff charges. Jin warns that some retailers have raised the minimum purchase amount for free shipping as a way to offset higher operational costs.
Which products should you buy on Black Friday?
Regarding the most recommended products to purchase during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, experts point out that technology, toys, small appliances, and subscriptions or experiences typically feature the most attractive discounts. Stephanie Carls, a retail analysis specialist, indicates that these categories usually see the most significant price cuts at the start of the season.
Conversely, Carls suggests waiting until December to buy everyday clothing, beauty products, and furniture, as retailers often clear out inventory during that period and offer better prices. Mattresses and large appliances can also wait, as their discounts often match those available on other dates like Presidents’ Day.
Reviewing return policies and price-matching guarantees is another key aspect. Goodstein reminds shoppers that many retailers allow returns of products purchased during these dates within an extended period, and some even refund the difference if the price drops shortly after purchase. Monitoring these details can prevent inconveniences and maximize savings.
