US inflation rises 0.4% in October: prices exceed forecasts

Inflation in the United States once again recorded an increase higher than expected by analysts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, coming in above the 0.3% predicted by economists.

This rebound follows a 0.6% increase recorded in September, showing that inflationary pressures continue to affect consumer pockets. Meanwhile, core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—advanced by 0.3% monthly, matching the pace of the previous two months.

It is worth noting that the BLS was unable to publish the 12-month year-over-year rate because the October 2025 federal government shutdown prevented the collection of comparative data for that period.

What categories drove the price increase in October?

The widespread increase in the tenth month of the year was driven primarily by the food, energy, and housing services sectors:

• Food (+0.5%): The cost of food increased noticeably after remaining unchanged in September. The food-at-home index (grocery store) rose 0.4%, driven by increases in items such as beef (+0.9%), eggs (+0.6%), and fruits and vegetables (+0.6%), although coffee experienced relief by falling 3.6%. Dining out also became 0.5% more expensive.
• Energy (+0.7%): Although the pace of growth slowed dramatically compared to September's 5.2% jump, energy continued upward. Gasoline increased 1.0% seasonally adjusted, while electricity advanced 0.9%. In contrast, natural gas dropped 0.8%.
• Housing and Services: The cost of housing (shelter) increased 0.3% monthly, representing one of the main burdens for households. Transportation services rose 0.8%, including a 0.4% increase in airline tickets.
• A specific relief: Used car and truck prices recorded a 1.2% drop in October, partially reversing the 0.7% increase seen in September.

Market reaction and outlook for December

The October inflation report has generated immediate reactions in financial markets. The main Wall Street indices—such as the S&P 500, the Dow Jones, and the Nasdaq—recorded losses of over 0.4% after the report was released, amid fears that high costs will persist longer.

Likewise, the report complicates the outlook for the Federal Reserve (Fed) ahead of its upcoming monetary policy meeting. Although a large portion of traders maintain bets on a modest adjustment in interest rates, the persistence of core inflation keeps alerts flashing among analysts regarding the speed of controlling the economy.