The recent military escalation between Israel and Iran has begun to directly impact international energy markets, with oil prices rising by over 8%.
Gas prices in the United States could begin to rise immediately, and if the conflict intensifies, they may reach levels not seen since the 2022 energy crisis.
On Friday, June 13, both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil futures—two global benchmarks for oil prices—recorded increases of over 8% following the cross-attacks between Tehran and Jerusalem. Gasoline prices in the United States, which are closely tied to the cost of crude oil, are expected to reflect this jump in the coming days.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted that U.S. consumers could see increases of between 10 and 25 cents per gallon starting as early as Friday. If this projection holds, the national average price, currently at $3.13 per gallon, would climb to $3.38, an increase of nearly 8%.
A Surge That Could Be Temporary
Some experts believe these types of increases may dissipate quickly if the conflict does not escalate.
Richard Joswick, head of short-term oil analysis at S&P Global Commodity Insights, recalled that last October, a similar exchange of attacks between Iran and Israel caused a sudden spike in oil prices that reversed within days once it became clear neither side planned to escalate further.
“When Iran and Israel exchanged attacks last time, prices rose but then fell once it was confirmed there would be no major escalation,” Joswick said in a note to investors.
What Would Happen If Supply Is Disrupted?
The biggest risk for U.S. consumers would arise if the conflict damages Iran’s oil infrastructure or disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical routes for global crude oil trade. Approximately 20% of the world’s oil passes through this strait.
Ramanan Krishnamoorti, a petroleum engineering professor at the University of Houston, warned that if the conflict significantly disrupts Iranian oil flows or blocks transit through the strait, the price per barrel could jump from the current $73 to $120. In that scenario, the average U.S. gasoline price would rise from $3.13 to $5.13 per gallon, a 64% increase.
“If passage through the Strait of Hormuz slows down, we’ll see a massive increase in oil prices, and that will affect everything in the United States,” Krishnamoorti emphasized.
Asset management firm Lazard also projected a scenario of “prices exceeding $120 per barrel” if the conflict involves attacks on energy facilities in the Persian Gulf or attempts to block transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Although Iran’s oil production has been limited by international sanctions, the country still accounts for 3% of global supply. Its strategic location gives it significant leverage, even if it is not one of the top exporters.
“We could be seeing just the tip of the iceberg in terms of price increases,” Krishnamoorti warned, though he added that if no further hostilities occur, the impact on gasoline prices would be “a mild increase.”
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